Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Who cares about Western Civilization? Surviving the Age of Obama.

Israel as Point Man for Joint Western – Arab Interests By Yisrael Ne'eman
Israel 's long term strategic importance is being downgraded as the Islamic world gains greater significance in American foreign policy. The "special relationship" Israel enjoyed with the US for close to a forty year period may be coming to an end. Sheer weight of numbers in the Moslem world (1.3 billion) coupled with land size and economy will force Israel into an uncomfortable corner internationally and regionally.
Historically Jewish nationalism preferred an alliance with the western powers, first Britain in the pre-state period, then France prior to 1967 (and its failure during the "waiting period" crisis) and lastly the State of Israel built a strategic relationship with the United States lasting some 40 years. The Soviet Bloc alternative was never a serious possibility and today does not exist. But in 1919 – 1920 Zionism's leading diplomat Chaim Weizmann was investigating possible alliances with the Arab world, in particular with Feisal who became king of Syria for four months and was run out of town by the French. The British, for fear of being outmaneuvered forced Weizmann to halt his initiatives towards the Arab world. They wanted both Arab and Jewish nationalism to deal directly with them.
Ninety years later and sixty years after independence we may have gone full circle with Zionism and the Israeli State being sought after by segments of the Arab world and the West in the joint effort to curtail a militaristic Islamic fundamentalism, beginning with Iran and continuing into the Sunni Moslem Brotherhood and its offshoots. The "special relationship" with the US is often seen as sentimental and value oriented in the popular sense when speaking of a "shared heritage" and "Judeo-Christian ethic" but in real political terms it has its foundations in Israel 's ability to prove itself as an asset to the Americans and the West.
Never has Israel been put to the true and complete test of total sacrifice in the name of Western interests. But with the Obama administration in power and its foreign policy realignment between the West and the Moslem world beginning with the more conservative/moderate Arab states, Israel will find itself a much smaller and less independent player than before. Among the secular and conservative elements in the Arab world Israel is begrudgingly considered a "fact" and therefore a player and not necessarily an adversary in the western Asian sphere.
Israel wants full acceptance and legitimacy as the nation state of the Jewish People. Historically the West has been in favor as seen from the Partition Plan of Nov. 1947 as based on the Balfour Declaration and the Palestine Mandate approved by the League of Nations . Even the moderate Arab world, as represented by the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, refuses to accept Jewish national legitimacy in the Land of Israel as an historic fact but rather views Israel as a modern nation state with whom they have negotiated conflict resolution.
Israel 's ticket to further acceptance, but not historical and religious legitimacy in the Middle East will be a result of proving itself an asset to the conservative and secular regimes in the Arab world including Egypt , Jordan , Tunisia , Morocco and the Gulf States led by the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates. Even include Fatah in this line-up. ****A rather slender reed, indeed.****
The conservative and secular regimes cannot be expected to put down Islamist uprisings of either the Sunni (Moslem Brotherhood and Al-Qaeda) or Shiite type (Iranian inspired Khomeinism and Hezbollah) without bringing about a backlash in their own societies. They certainly cannot field armies against such threats. Calling upon an outside player is the only option and the West is not only tiring but views itself as having the option of non-engagement. Even the Americans are beginning to doubt Obama's policies in the "good" war in Afghanistan. North America, Europe and the conservative secular Arab regimes realize Israel is the only true ally, not out of any mutual love but because of its own dire needs for security and acceptance of its "right" to exist. Hence the confluence of interests in confronting the Jihadists.
Israel 's "right" to exist will rest on its ability to defend Western and moderate Arab world interests. To ensure its own security Israel did battle against the Hezbollah in 2006 and Hamas in 2008-09 and in both cases any Israeli successes were beneficial to the West and the secular and conservative Arab regimes as their Islamist enemies were weakened. The right of the Jewish State to survive will be conditional on its successes against the Jihadists with the evolving alliance of convenience.
The major test can be expected with Iran . If necessary Israel will be expected to act as the defender of Western interests and their conservative Arab allies even should it mean direct conflict with Tehran and the resulting damages inflicted by Hamas/Hezbollah/Iranian rocket fire and terror attacks. Jewish nationalism will continue to earn its place in the Middle East by becoming a strategic asset to the conservative Arab states and not by "right" as a given.
Israel has no choice but to accept its new role as "point man" especially in light of the redirection of American foreign policy towards the Moslem/Arab world where the Jewish State will only be a pawn in a continually expanding game. Two questions arise: What price will the Jewish State pay for acceptance? And even should victory be assured for the West and its Arab allies, would existential Israeli interests be sacrificed by the US in a post war scenario bringing erstwhile radical states such as Iran into a Pax Americana of world peace?
****An unfortunate confluence of events over three decades: Carter creating the jihadist menace in Iran, a passive Clinton and W Bush and an antiWestern Obama having combined to create an existential danger for Israel and, indeed, for Western Civilization. It may remain to Israel to defend the latter; the question is whether it can itself survive a possible apocalypse.Only Sarkozy's France holds out any possibility of European help. Turkey if it reasserts its secular nature could be an ally. The clearest alignment of interests would seem to be with India with the hope to survive the Age of Obama.****

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